how likely is it to get your top pick sorority?

chances are like 3/1083297428

It depends on so many factors, and it ultimately varies depending on who your first pick is and how many other PNMs want them as your first pick. My recommendation, assuming you maximized your options, is to just expect a card from your second choice and think about everything you liked about them. That way if you get your second choice you’re able to keep a more open mind, and if you get your first choice it’ll be a pleasant surprise.

Very very very very very very slim chance. If you want to be greek maximize your choices and don't quit. If you get an option and quit then you get what you deserve which is nothing/no greek experience. There are solid houses in our system across the board. The fixed mindset thinking that I only want one or two houses is nonsense. But if you think this way you will get zero! I'm ok with that BTW because it is proving you don't want to be part of the system you just want to be part of a certain house. Things don't work this way and I'm glad that they don't.